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限制COVID-19在特定年龄段的传播可能是控制疾病的关键
作者:小柯机器人 发布时间:2021/2/4 17:42:59

英国帝国理工学院Oliver Ratmann等研究人员合作发现,限制COVID-19在特定年龄段的传播可能是控制疾病的关键。这一研究成果于2021年2月2日在线发表在国际学术期刊《科学》上。

研究人员分析了美国1000余万人的总体流动趋势,并将其与特定年龄的COVID-19死亡率数据进行了关联。研究人员估计,截至2020年10月,只有20-49岁的人群能够维持SARS-CoV-2的持续传播,其繁殖数量远高于1,而且在美国每100例COVID-19感染中至少有65例来自20-49岁的人群。针对20-49岁的成年人的干预措施(包括阻止传播的疫苗)是制止病毒复发并预防COVID-19相关死亡的重要考虑因素。 

据悉,在最初的下降之后,美国和欧洲COVID-19的传播在2020年中期重新出现。随着COVID-19疾病控制工作的加强,了解导致传播的年龄人口统计以及这些因素如何影响干预措施的变化至关重要。

附:英文原文

Title: Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

Author: Mélodie Monod, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Xiaoyue Xi, Daniel Hebert, Sivan Bershan, Simon Tietze, Marc Baguelin, Valerie C. Bradley, Yu Chen, Helen Coupland, Sarah Filippi, Jonathan Ish-Horowicz, Martin McManus, Thomas Mellan, Axel Gandy, Michael Hutchinson, H. Juliette T Unwin, Sabine L. van Elsland, Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Sebastian Weber, Harrison Zhu, Anne Bezancon, Neil M. Ferguson, Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann, on behalf of the Imperial College COVID- Response Team

Issue&Volume: 2021/02/02

Abstract: Following initial declines, in mid 2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the US and Europe. As COVID19 disease control efforts are re-intensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the US and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20-49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one, and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20-49 in the US. Targeting interventions – including transmission-blocking vaccines – to adults aged 20-49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abe8372

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/02/01/science.abe8372

期刊信息
Science:《科学》,创刊于1880年。隶属于美国科学促进会,最新IF:41.037