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研究揭示SARS-CoV-2变种B.1.1.7在英格兰的传播能力和影响
作者:小柯机器人 发布时间:2021/3/7 21:47:12

英国伦敦大学卫生和热带医学学院Nicholas G. Davies等研究人员揭示SARS-CoV-2变种B.1.1.7在英格兰的传播能力和影响。相关论文于2021年3月3日在线发表在《科学》杂志上。

研究人员表示,新型SARS-CoV-2变种VOC 202012/01(谱系B.1.1.7)于2020年11月在英格兰东南部出现,并迅速向固定传播。

使用各种统计和动态建模方法,研究人员估计该变种的基本再生数比现有变体高43-90%(95%可信区间38-130%)。拟合的两应变动态传递模型表明,VOC 202012/01将导致COVID-19案例的大规模死灰复燃。如果没有严格的控制措施,包括有限地关闭教育机构和大大加快疫苗的推出,到2021年英格兰的COVID-19住院和死亡人数将超过2020年。令人担忧的是,VOC 202012/01已在全球蔓延,并在丹麦、瑞士和美国呈现出类似的传播增加(59–74%)。 

附:英文原文

Title: Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Author: Nicholas G. Davies, Sam Abbott, Rosanna C. Barnard, Christopher I. Jarvis, Adam J. Kucharski, James D. Munday, Carl A. B. Pearson, Timothy W. Russell, Damien C. Tully, Alex D. Washburne, Tom Wenseleers, Amy Gimma, William Waites, Kerry L. M. Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort, Justin D. Silverman, CMMID COVID- Working Group, COVID- Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Karla Diaz-Ordaz, Ruth Keogh, Rosalind M. Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Mark Jit, Katherine E. Atkins, W. John Edmunds

Issue&Volume: 2021/03/03

Abstract: A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43–90% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine roll-out, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths across England in 2021 will exceed those in 2020. Concerningly, VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59–74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055

期刊信息
Science:《科学》,创刊于1880年。隶属于美国科学促进会,最新IF:41.037